How is chance of precipitation percentage

Those percentages appear frequently in the 7-day and hourly planners, but it is not completely understood what the numbers mean. Confidence meaning that forecaster is confident the precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area. The POP that we always talk about is for the viewing area only. It is important to note that the percentage does not factor in how much rain will fall and the intensity of it.

Weather Blog: What does the rain percentage really mean? The rain percentage can spark a percent chance of confusion. Posted: Mar 11, AM. Posted By: Beverly Perry. Related Content Weather Blog: What does the rain percentage really mean?

Scroll for more content How could we be sure this random TikToker had it right? In fact, there are five different commonly used definitions for PoP among meteorologists alone. No wonder the average weather app user is confused. One of the five definitions in Dr. And "A" means the percent of the area that will receive a measurable amount of rain, if it occurs at all.

But Dr. His interpretation is more in line with the common understanding of PoP — not the TikTok. Both are wrong. Apologies in advance if I just shattered your world view…. By adding a reference class, such as, on one in five days like today, there will be rain in your area, it provides context and anchors the probability information.

But the thing is, even if you personally interpret PoP incorrectly, Dr. And most people are getting along fine even when they misunderstand PoP. Williams says. That is, until someone on TikTok comes along and rains on our PoP parade.

Still, both Dr. I asked Dr. Williams why he thought that this PoP conversation was becoming so popular now. He said it was a good hypothesis.

But if the whole mysterious mess is infuriating to you, take a page from my book and ditch the tyranny of the weather app altogether.