One reason is that the increasingly rapid pace of technology advancement will shrink that year period by at least half. Hardly anyone, except the forward thinking people at the SAE Convergence conference! Who thought that driverless vehicles would be piloted by a search engine company Google and a bookseller Amazon? Obviously Google and Amazon have redefined themselves to include much more than just Internet searching and selling books online.
This is another aspect of convergence and consumerization trends—cross-industry collaboration and innovation. It is important to realize that most Information technologies have already rounded the corner of their technology advancement curve and are on their way to extremely high rates of advancement, as can be seen in Figure 3 below. Security technology will advance through the up-swinging curve, and in the next 10 years it will seem like more than years of progress is taking place, compared to the previous 10 years.
The pace of advancement will pick up slowly, round the speed corner, and after that take off like a rocket. It is hard to envision this much advancement now, partly because of the constraints that handcuff the security industry. Yet the visionaries will have to look past these constraints, as technology advancement is set to eliminate them in short order.
Security technology companies that limit their designs based on current constraints will in essence be designing obsolete products and services. Individual illustrations of the growth trends of the technologies depicted in Figure 3 are available online at: www.
Figure 3. Security technology is about to enter a period of very rapid advancement. This initiative only secures the Internet connections themselves. It does not secure the web applications, but application security has its own trend of advancement, and these trends will all combine to drastically reduce the risk involved with internet transactions.
As the Internet bandwidth constraint lifts, and security for web services drastically improves, suddenly cloud-based security services start making a lot more sense. Cloud-based services are poised to be as big a part of the security services landscape as are other service-based applications for other business sectors. What changes will take place within the security industry? According to the law of accelerating returns, the pace of technological progress—especially information technology—speeds up exponentially over time because there is a common force driving it forward.
Being exponential, as it turns out, is all about evolution. Recorded within the DNA of living things are blueprints of useful tools known as genes. As this process plays out generation after generation over geological timescales, chaotically yet incrementally, incredible growth takes place.
By building on genetic progress rather than starting over, organisms have increased in complexity and capability over time. This innovative power is evident nearly everywhere we look on Earth today. According to Kurzweil, technology is also an evolutionary process, like biology, only it moves from one invention to the next much faster. Similarly, each generation of technology builds on the advances of previous generations, and this creates a positive feedback loop of improvements. Because each generation of technology improves over the last, the rate of progress from version to version speeds up.
To see this, imagine making a chair with hand tools, power tools, and finally assembly lines. Production gets faster after each step. Now imagine each generation of these tools is also used to design and build better tools. Kurzweil suggests such a process is at play in the design of ever-faster computer chips with the software and computers used by engineers.
They were designed for repeatable and narrowly predetermined tasks. Picking up a toy, folding clothes, or loading a dishwasher seem easy to us, but have been impossible for robots. Synchronizing the technological capabilities required — programming, computation, hardware, sensors, communications — has been beyond reach. Our old definitions of cars and trucks, scooters and bikes, airplanes and even wheelchairs no longer apply.
New vehicles yet to be imagined will be invented to travel the land, sea, and air. The exponential advance of multiple supporting technologies is driving us toward a mobility revolution. Any vehicle will connect and communicate to other vehicles and to humans. Any vehicle will function with intelligence. There is no doubt that colliding exponentials will also create revolutions in biotech, virtual and augmented reality, and more.
Now imagine the collision of all of those revolutions! What will happen as we combine the virtual assistance with the biotech revolution, mobility, and anthropomorphic robotics? Every revolution produces both positive and negative impact. This has been true since the invention of the wheel — which was used to transport both food and armies — giving life and taking it. Many technologies today are nowhere near penetrating half of American homes a decade after they were first commercialized.
As David Moschella writes in Seeing Digital , home robots were introduced in , wearable Fitbits in , consumer 3D printers in , and VR-3D goggles in , and none are anywhere near 50 percent penetration. In , they predicted that mesh networks, home health monitoring, RFID technology products, 3D printing, 3D flat-panel displays, and mobile robots all were poised for takeoff. A decade later, none had done so. In , Gartner listed biometrics, quantum computing, 3D Web, micropayments and grid computing.
Two decades later, none of those technologies are in widespread use, either. Enthusiasts today nonetheless point to technologies like the telephone, which took longer to adopt than, say, the Internet or the cell phone.
But one big problem with historical comparisons of technology adoption rates is that when most of the population is low-income, as U. As such, rather than look at adoption rates, it is better to look at development rates.
Consider that between the late s and the early s, America was transformed with subways, electric lighting, skyscrapers and elevators, airplanes, the assembly line, automobiles, the sewing machine, and countless other inventions.
Just look at the difference between a typical urban street in and in figure 2. Motor vehicle production went from 4, units in to 3. There were just 8, motor vehicles registered in the United States in , according to the Census , but 22 million in Electric utilities produced just 2 billion kilowatt hours in but 69 billion by
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